Sports bets are often very profitable if a person know the secrets the particular “smart money” gamblers apply to consistently make dollars. One of the primary secrets that smart money bettors use is usually knowing when NOT to bet.
Here’s a best instance. I analyzed often the Western side California vs. Louisville game, and concluded that will West Florida had the particular edge in the sport. Nonetheless We also came to the realization that there were a lot of random and unpredictable factors, and recommended to my clients that they do not gamble on this specific game. Here is my personal analysis I released in advance of the game:
West Florida vs . Louisville
This sport possesses all the symptoms of being one of the very best games of the year, having each teams coming into the action 7-0. It’s #3 positioned West Virginia compared to. #5 ranked Louisville, equally together with high-scoring offenses and stingy defenses. Last year’s game was a classic, with West Virginia coming backside from appearing down big in the independence day 1 fourth to winning in overtime.
So what’s the action appear like this year?
When this video game were appearing played with a good basic field, West Virginia will probably be a 4-6 stage favorite. Since the particular game is in Louisville, WVU is a 1-point under dog. Let’s see if this will make sense…
West Virginia is on an unprecedented throw. They haven’t lost considering that March. 1, 2005, going 14-0 since they lost to Florida Tech. Through the last two times they’re 13-5 ATS as well. They’re also 7-2 OBTAIN THE in their last on the lookout for video games overall, and 8-2 ATS in their previous 10 HIGHWAY games.
These kind of are some very remarkable stats that tilt the scales in favor regarding WVU for tonight’s online game. Plus, typically the extra reward is that WVU will be GETTING +1 point. This may not look like much, but in a shut match-up similar to this, that special point will certainly make the change between a push and even a loss.
But some of us wonder what regarding Louisville?
ufabet168.info/%E0%B8%9A%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%84%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%A3%E0%B9%88%E0%B8%B2-sa/ may be almost as good because WVU’s -except when this comes to Louisville within the point spread. In their particular very last 10 games, Louisville is simply 4-6 ATS. The fact that said, Louisville is even now 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
And even if you’re leaning in direction of WVU, here’s a frightening stat… Louisville hasn’t shed in your own home since 12 17, the year 2003! During this recent run Louisville is averaging 49. 4 points every game at your home, while averaging only stopping 15. 8 points each game on home. In case you don’t do the mathematics, that means considering his or her last home damage they’ve averaged beating their own opposing team by simply about thirty four details per game.
What’s more extraordinary, the average line during these games has only already been 21 points. That methods Louisville has beaten often the get spread around, on average, by 13 details per game at home considering that the year 2003.
Wow… how can a person go against that?
Here’s precisely how…
Most of those stats were being piled up during the 2005 season. This year, 2006, Louisville has been closer to good than great. They are yet to had recent games where they’ve only scored 36, 12, 24 points. And these online games weren’t against Kansas E. or Michigan. They had been against Cincinnati, Syracuse, together with Kansas St.
In essence that will this is still a close activity to get in touch with. Nonetheless the things i look with regard to is West Virginia’s safeguard to carry the day. If Cincinnati, Syracuse, and even Kansas St. can all hold Louisville under thirty points, then there’s simply no factor to think WVU can’t hold them to this low to middle 20’s. My honest professional recommendation is usually to lay off this particular game and not really bet at all. There are better activities this quick with more simple advantages.
The final score of this game was Louisville 44, West Las vegas 34. Lousiville won because West Florida had 6 fumbles and allowed Lousiville to return some sort of punt for a TD. The bottom line was that will West Virginia’s fringe had not been so big which they may possibly still win following doing so many mistakes. By not betting on this game, people severe with regards to wagering saved money these people can put to better use on future games.